Jie Yu aluminum>>Influence of Freight Rate Increase on Aluminum Industry
Influence of Freight Rate Increase on Aluminum Industry
September 21 by the Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Public Security jointly issued the "overtaking transport vehicles driving the road management regulations," the first day of formal implementation. Through visits to the market and the exchange with the card and found that the Guangzhou market, Lingdan freight rose two days, or between 15-20%. As to whether this uptrend will continue, it may take more time to observe.
National Ministry of Transport announced the new "Regulations on the Administration of Overpass Vehicles Driving Roads". At present, the new national standard framework has been implemented. Since September 21, 2016, the national roads have been severely checked and the transportation of bulk trucks has been limited. Around the different standards, the current restrictions around the port and the baked standards, refer to the following restrictions on the standard loading:
First, Qiyun part: At present, Jiangsu, Shanghai. Anhui, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Guangdong, Sichuan, Fujian, Hebei, Northeast and Shandong Province, the cargo load does not exceed 30 T / car.
Second, sea containers: Since September 20, 2016, Guangdong (Huangpu and Nansha Hong Kong) 20-foot small cabinet does not exceed 28T, two boxes of two boxes of limited total 30T, 40-foot big cabinet does not exceed 26T; Small cabinet does not exceed 23T, Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou port 20-foot small cabinet does not exceed 22T, 20-foot small cabinet does not exceed 24T, the above weight by gross weight.
Large trailer transport of aluminum ingots
Freight freight per ton increased by 15-20% after the standard truck drivers more peace of mind
After the implementation of the new regulations, six-axis double-driven semi-trailer overrun standard 49 tons. The actual total weight (55T) - wagon (17T) = actual load (38T), the actual load after the implementation of the new regulations: total weight (49T) - wagon (17) = actual load (32T). According to Guangzhou, a few do LTL freight logistics company bosses, their current freight and maintain a unified price, that is, the original 1 million cars, and now or 11 000 vehicles, but the load down 6 tons of freight per ton of freight rise.
Guangzhou Lingdan freight prices rose 15%
A run Guangdong to Shanxi Lingdan transport card Friends of the reaction, they used to run from Taiyuan, Shanxi Taiyuan, the tariff is about 460 yuan a ton, and his September 21 evening loaded in Guangzhou, a cargo, tariffs referred to the 530 Yuan a ton, the total weight of goods is also controlled within 49 tons. According to the new regulations, he believes that if the current freight and load in accordance with the current transport, the driver revenue will increase compared to before, vehicle tolls can be reduced a lot, oil costs can be reduced. After the standard car pulled the light, and more secure security, each passing through the toll station, do not need to worry about jumping pounds did not jump well, the car on the road to go do not have to worry about the.
Freight rose to enterprises to pay 921 after the pressure on production enterprises increased significantly
For many manufacturers, the implementation of the new 921 regulations to bring them a lot of pressure, rising freight costs are basically paid by them, and many industries for various reasons, or even the driver can not find the goods Case. To fertilizer companies, for example, after the implementation of the new regulations, the cost of long-distance transport of fertilizers does increase, and may push up the retail price of fertilizers. After the fertilizer transport may be tilted to the railway, the increase in freight will eventually be passed on to consumers.
Comparison of Freight Price Changes of 6 - axis Double - trailer Trailer after Implementing New Regulation
The new regulations for the more widespread impact of the industry is more serious impact, since September 21, the main coal producing areas in northern Shaanxi most of the coal mines began to stall. It is understood that the northern Shaanxi Shenmu County, the two days of the freight department of coal freight have been raised. Shaanxi Province, freight increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, within 1,000 km raised 40-50 yuan / ton, 1,000 km road raised 50-70 yuan / ton, but even this increase, willing to pull the goods drivers is also very few Few. A local driver said: "overloading a ton penalty 500, earn not a fine. Not up freight only outage, no one is willing to do losing money trading."
The launch of this special action, for the production of steel, circulation, downstream links, etc. have different degrees of impact:
Production processes:
1, consider the transport costs of electrolytic aluminum plant, ore stocking may adjust the ratio of internal and external ore, the ore proportion increased.
2, in order to ensure profits and reduce costs, the amount of price, lower output pressure, reduce production, thereby reducing the total amount of ore.
3, the short process and geographical location does not have the advantage of aluminum may be due to storage and sales of raw materials increased costs led to a loss and forced to cut.
Circulation links:
1, changes in trading habits, plant to reduce the number, Kuti increased the number of resources from the factory to the social stock transfer, the role of the market reservoir is more apparent.
2, short-term transport costs are expected to increase 30-50%, due to the current cost of the main body is not recognized, the formation of a vacuum transport, resulting in short-term capacity is insufficient, the arrival cycle will increase short-term trading volume decreased significantly.
3, aluminum, aluminum water rods and aluminum ingot transport mode adjustment, reduce the Qiyun to increase fire and water transport.
Downstream:
1, the capacity of the phased shortage, in order to improve capacity, demand for goods vehicles is expected to increase, indirect demand for steel.
2, transport New Deal pushed up logistics costs, terminal procurement costs will increase.
Overall:
Short-term: 30-50% increase in freight costs, transaction costs, because there is no cost to bear the main short-term transport vacuum, poor market transactions, trading volume decreased significantly, social and aluminum plant inventories increased, with the downward pressure, Ingot, aluminum water rod due to lack of capacity supply even more nervous, aluminum plant procurement more positive prices;
Medium-term: rising costs and poor sales lead to aluminum plant cut, ore demand is limited, bad aluminum ore, but the aluminum plant cut to reduce the supply of timber, boosting the price of aluminum material bottomed up;
Long-term: the implementation of the New Deal may continue to transport, but with the adjustment of freight and the cost of transfer to the end-user, the implementation of the New Deal may lead to the continued increase in demand for goods, good aluminum market will help improve the overall supply and demand.
The state of this unified overloading overload identified standards, overloading special rectification of the New Deal will undoubtedly transport the entire freight industry will have a huge impact. The cost of steel also appeared to support the expected. But the implementation of the cost of the increase still needs a long time to digest and passed on. Whether steel prices bottomed remains to be seen.