As the basic economic law of human development and social contradictions can not be fundamentally resolved, so a long time the world economy is in cyclical changes. At present, the global economy is in the recovery phase after the depression cycle. Under the influence of various deep-rooted contradictions, the recovery process is slow and there are many uncertain factors, which poses a severe challenge to China's economic development.
Beginning in 2012, the debt crisis in Europe intensified, governments of the monetary policy response to the financial crisis led to increased liquidity and inflation expectations, geopolitical and social conflicts lead to turmoil, the main economic policy change caused by the direction of the unknown, which are people on the economy Operating prospects are full of worries. However, through the fog can also see that the world's real economy has been out of the 2008 international financial crisis, in the face of many challenges there are many development opportunities. As long as we carefully analyze the situation, accurately grasp the opportunities, and actively respond to challenges, we can stand on a new starting point for greater development.
First, the world economy in the turbulence in the development of economic growth momentum is still inadequate
Currently, there are only one European Union in North America, the European Union, East Asia, China and emerging economies where serious problems arise. But because of its total economic output close to the world's first economy, the United States, so the EU problems on the world economic development is still a great impact. But the core of the EU is Germany and France, the manufacturing sector as the center of the real economy is strong, the virtual economic status is limited, the overall strength far more than the real economy is weak in Greece, Spain, Italy and other countries with strong financial risk ability. Therefore, as long as Germany and France do not have big problems, the EU economic situation is not worse than the current.
The current world's largest economy, the United States in the gradual increase in vitality. Despite the serious impact of the financial crisis, but the United States rely on scientific and technological innovation and financial innovation "two wheels", both the real economic advantages, but also a virtual economic synthesizer, comprehensive national strength is strong, still occupy the commanding heights of international competition. As the United States occupies an important position in the world economy, the normal development of the global economy is of great significance. However, 2012 is the United States Government, the various political forces on the economic development of the practical attention of the decline is inevitable, economic development is difficult to act, can not effectively support the global economic recovery process.
Japan is currently facing no major challenges, and post-earthquake reconstruction may be in 2012 for its local economy to bring a little vitality. On the other hand, Japan has a large number of high-quality assets in the outside, you can support its domestic economy remained stable. However, the overall strength of Japan is limited, its economic development is not enough to support the driving force of the world economic recovery process.
China, Russia, India, Brazil and other emerging economies is an important force in promoting world economic development. At present, the economic development of these countries are facing the pressure of inflation, although the role of inertial forces in 2012, emerging economies, the national economy will continue to maintain the pace of development, but the growth rate down on the impact of world economic development can not be ignored.
Comprehensive analysis, the current slowdown in world economic growth, international trade growth rate down, the international financial market turbulence, all kinds of risks increased significantly, so that the overall situation of the world economy in 2012 will remain very severe and complex, is expected in 2012 world economic development speed in 3%, lower than the previous year level.
Second, the risk of organic, risk and opportunity in the same
The overall recovery of the domestic and foreign economy ultimately depends on the normal development of the real economy. China has more than 1.3 billion population, is the world's manufacturing power, the foothold of economic development must rely on the real economy. For the real economy to provide a good environment for the development of national economic policy is the basic starting point and foothold.
From the current domestic and international economic situation analysis, in severe challenges, there are still many opportunities for development. In particular, the money supply at home and abroad is not short, providing strong support for economic growth. It is noteworthy that the distribution of global money supply is very uneven, driven by financial innovation in developed countries, the global currency too much concentrated in the virtual economy, the real economy, lack of currency support. The low level of marketization of the domestic financial industry, the irrational flow of money, resulting in weakening the real economic status.
From the perspective of national macro-control, in 2012 China's external economic environment, the real economy is gradually improving. The main non-ferrous metal products with financial commodity attributes, to achieve a virtual economy and the effective integration of the real economy. According to this characteristic, how to seize the policy opportunity and seek greater development in the complex economic environment is the focus of China's non-ferrous metal industry must be concerned.
Third, China's non-ferrous metal industry to respond to challenges, the development of ideas
At present, China's non-ferrous metal industry is facing a grim economic situation. In order to meet the challenges and ensure the steady development of the industry, to avoid a "ups and downs", the need to do the following work.
1, planning the overall situation, promote structural adjustment
Historical experience has been proved numerous times, bogus bureau gave birth to a good opportunity for development. 2012 domestic and international economic situation for the use of market "Daobi" mechanism, promote industrial restructuring, promote industrial restructuring and upgrading, to achieve low-cost expansion provides a good opportunity. As long as the real abandonment of extensive mode of development, starting from the formation of long-term good assets, a clear direction, adhere to the "do something, do something" approach to comprehensively enhance the resource control, market influence, technical guidance, China's non-ferrous metal industry enterprises will be able to maintain stable operation in the severe challenges, taking the new-type industrialization road with high technological content, good economic returns, low resource consumption, little environmental pollution and human resources advantages.
2, strengthen management, prevent asset risk
It is an important way to seek the development of business assets in the deterioration of operating environment. In the economic operation situation is grim environment, enterprise development is facing serious challenges, there are also important development opportunities. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the optimization and reorganization of assets. In 2008 the outbreak of the international "financial tsunami", some of our strength, the international level of relatively high operating non-ferrous metal industry enterprises to seize the historical opportunity to actively carry out diversified asset management activities, significantly enhance the development of strength. In the current situation, this need to be given special attention.
3, closely tracking the market, scientific decision-making operations
Copper, aluminum and other major non-ferrous metals derivatives outstanding financial attributes, the financial turmoil caused by the frequent ups and downs of their prices, not only brings operational risks, there are business opportunities. Therefore, non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises need to closely follow the domestic and foreign markets, in-depth study of the inherent law of the market and the current characteristics, on this basis to make scientific judgments to guide the business activities. For non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises, in the case of deteriorating economic operating environment, any tightening of expenditure, reduce costs and other measures to ease the financial constraints are not as important as scientific management. Because in the frequent price fluctuations, the spread is often more than the enterprise to reduce production and operation costs of the effort.
4, increase investment in science and technology development, construction technology-oriented industries
Increasing investment in science and technology development, building technology-oriented industries, China's non-ferrous metal industry to achieve from large to strong changes in the important initiatives. Especially in the current corporate funds are generally tight situation, must not cut investment in science and technology development. On the contrary, in order to occupy the commanding heights of future competition, all kinds of enterprises should focus on the actual needs of their own development, increase R & D investment, and strive to break through the key technical bottlenecks, forming the core competitiveness of enterprises.
5, Adhere to the rational use of resources, the implementation of a flexible mode of production and operation
As a resource-developing industry, the rational use of resources, prevention and control of environmental pollution should always be the main focus of non-ferrous metal industry development. Therefore, in the current market oversupply, price shocks, weak exports, from the effective use of resources, reduce the "three wastes" emissions, non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises can adopt a flexible mode of production and operation, the "limited production price" Reduce resource consumption, energy consumption and environmental impact, but also can reduce the enterprise's capital occupation, should be our country's non-ferrous metal industry to actively respond to the current market challenges an important option. (Zhao Wu Zhuang)
