To improve the value-added of their minerals, the Government of Indonesia intends to prohibit its original metal ore since May this year for mining companies that have not submitted a plan for the development of deep-seated ore processing, according to the report of Medan, Export. Affected by this, Indonesia's bauxite, nickel and other major metal ore export volume is expected to drop by about 75%. Jinhui analysts believe that: Indonesia this move has a greater impact on China's ore imports, bauxite prices are expected to rise in the future. The analysis is as follows:
1, Chinese bauxite dependence on Indonesia is extremely high. In 2011, China's bauxite dependence on 59%, while the source of imports mainly include Indonesia, Australia and India and other countries. In 2011, the proportion of bauxite imported from various countries and the year-on-year growth is shown in the table. From the table data we can see: in 2011 China's dependence on Indonesia's bauxite degree of 47%, and an upward trend.
country
Imports in 2011 (ten thousand tons)
proportion
Year-on-year growth
Indonesia
3572.08
79.65%
56.60%
Australia
839.92
18.73%
27.51%
India
62.54
1.39%
22.81%
2, the first quarter of 2012, China's bauxite imports showed a substantial growth trend, and increase the proportion of imported bauxite from Indonesia. In the first quarter, China imported a total of 13.0181 million tons of bauxite, an increase of 50.73% over the same period of China's imports from Indonesia was 10,303,100 tons, an increase of 60.02%.
3, the future demand for bauxite is expected to further enhance. First, almost all of the alumina in the rest of the world is produced from bauxite, with the exception of Russia. Alumina is the main raw material for aluminum production, and the main industrial process for electrolysis is alumina; therefore, bauxite Is the best raw material for the production of metal aluminum, and is the most important application areas, its use accounts for more than 90% of the total output of bauxite in the world. So the future demand and development of aluminum can be considered to represent the needs and development of bauxite.
The main applications of aluminum include automotive, construction and aviation. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual average increment of aluminum used in construction, automobiles (considering lightweight) and power cables is close to 1.4 million tons, with an annual growth rate of about 10%. In addition, with the domestic economic situation is getting better, the construction industry, automotive and other aluminum products will increase the demand for end-industries to further stimulate the domestic demand for bauxite.
4, short-term can not seek to replace the country. Currently imported bauxite from abroad, the lowest price of bauxite in Indonesia, compared to the second largest importer of Australia, the price is low about 20%, and compared with Indonesia, Australia has two disadvantages: First, now Production capacity compared with Indonesia is relatively small. Secondly, the domestic mines are concentrated in the hands of comprehensive miners such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and FMG. The comprehensive mining investment is concentrated in iron ore, and the output of aluminum ore can not be increased substantially in the short to medium term.
In addition, if China imports from Australia or other regions, will increase the cost of shipping and due to the different sources of ore to replace the equipment costs. Short-term can not effectively solve the problem of alternative imports.
5, short-term China's bauxite can not increase production in response to import shortages. First of all, China's poor quality of bauxite, processing difficulties, energy consumption of diaspore-type dihydrate in the country's total reserves of more than 98%. The bauxite resources are mainly bauxite with low alumina-silica ratio. Bauxite method is used in domestic bauxite production enterprises, which belongs to the high-cost production capacity. The consumption of aluminum coal is much higher than that of imported bauxite. Bayer law. Secondly, from the low-temperature Bayer law into high-temperature Bayer France pre-need to spend a lot of financial and material resources, unfavorable situation in the event of a short period of time will inevitably affect a wide range of enterprise production.
Therefore, with the ban on bauxite export time limit in Indonesia, there will be a shortage of bauxite supply, and thus make bauxite face rising risk. In addition, with the electrolytic aluminum raw material supply fatal gap, the domestic supply of primary aluminum will have a certain degree of shortage, and thus will open up the space for aluminum prices. However, at the same time we also note that Indonesia to be taken in May to limit the export of metal, the policy operation is very difficult.
First of all, in 2011 the output of Indonesia bauxite 36.11 million tons, of which 20 million tons exported to China, the rest processed into alumina, mainly exported to China, together, about 90% of bauxite exported to China. And Indonesia's domestic processing capacity of bauxite is limited, can handle less than 40% of bauxite. If you take the ban, will lead to Indonesia's domestic bauxite industry overcapacity and industry is extremely low, thus triggering industry associations opposition and protest.
Second, exports accounted for Indonesia's national economy accounted for about 11% of the economy, while Indonesia has not yet digested for the export of ore capacity, a total ban on exports of crude ore will cause greater impact on the Indonesian national economy.
Finally, local governments at all levels in Indonesia have a heavy voice in the country, a complete ban on exports of local ore will damage the interests of local governments, increase the differences between different stakeholders, thereby increasing the difficulty of implementation. Indonesia in 2011 after the ban on the export of tin has been implemented for 3 months on hastily, so the implementation of this ban on how the need for further observation.
Indonesia's bauxite exports for the status quo, we believe that: the ultimate purpose of this move is to increase the price of ore and other bauxite by Indonesia, raising export prices. Further situation needs to be implemented in May to verify the ban. Investors may pay proper attention to all or a larger proportion of the domestic bauxite production of listed companies, as shown in the table:
the company
Introduction
Yunnan Aluminum shares (000807)
Main business is aluminum smelting, aluminum processing products, such as the production and sale, and actively relying on Yunnan unique aluminum resources. In addition, the Wenshan alumina production, will gradually realize the self-sufficiency of bauxite, bauxite completely benefit - alumina industry chain product prices
Western Mining (601168)
China's non-ferrous metal resources in the field of one of the most important companies, with surplus non-ferrous metal minerals, its control of five mines and three smelters
In the color of shares (000,758)
(Laos) Co., Ltd. and Lao PDR cooperated with Baosong Bauxite Bauxite Baosong Bauxite Project in Laos to develop the bauxite project in Paixong area, Laos. The resource block is rich in resources and well developed in exploration and development conditions. , The expected benefits and other characteristics of a domestic bauxite are difficult to go beyond