In the government work report adopted by the NPC and CPPCC, the goal of GDP growth this year was set at 7.5 percent, the first time in eight years that the GDP growth target was less than 8 percent. In other words, even in the international financial crisis is also full "eight" and "eight" successful Chinese economy, in 2012 but to "break eight" target operation. This is a long-term accustomed to high economic growth in the economy through the Chinese people, GDP growth rate of eight, really feel a bit startled.
      In fact, the reduction of economic growth targets, both the result of active strategic choice, but also the objective situation dictates.
      The purpose is to better implement the scientific development as the theme, to accelerate the transformation of economic development as the main line of the road of economic development, in line with the "stability and progress," the work of the overall tone of the work . Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, as saying that the reduction of economic growth targets, can ease the contradiction between supply and demand, ease the constraints of resources and the environment to ease the pressure of rising prices, the more attention to the transformation of economic development, , Improve the quality and efficiency of economic development up, in order to grasp the initiative of economic soft landing. Active choice of economic growth target is conducive to steady policy, steady growth, stable prices and stabilize the overall situation of the "four stable" on the basis of speeding up the transformation, deepening reform, improving the people's livelihood to reserve more policy control space to ensure the macro-control Flexibility and foresight.
      Complex and grim world economic situation, but also to promote China's economic growth target to cut the external factors. At present, the United States and other Western developed countries, the economic downturn, the European debt crisis is spreading to the European core countries and the European banking system, many European sovereign credit rating was lowered, leading to increased economic turmoil is already dangerous, growth in developing countries are also Into the downlink channel. The international financial crisis caused by the deep-seated effects after three years is still difficult to eliminate, the world economic recovery will take time, a severe international environment weakened the role of external demand on China's economic growth, lowering China's economic growth has become inevitable .
      So, GDP growth "break eight", the impact on the non-ferrous metals industry? Nonferrous metal potential after how?
      First, we need to compare the growth of non-ferrous metals with the growth of GDP.




      As can be seen from the above chart, first, since the beginning of the 21st century, in the normal year before the international financial crisis, the growth rate of the ten commonly used non-ferrous metals has always changed with the growth rate of GDP, Is a positive correlation. Second, the growth rate of 10 commonly used non-ferrous metals production is always higher than the GDP growth rate, the international financial crisis eight years ago, the average GDP growth rate of 10.09%, while the country's 10 kinds of commonly used non-ferrous metal production growth The average rate of 16.61%, non-ferrous metal production growth rate than the average growth rate of 6.56 percentage points higher than the average. During this period, the growth rate of total output value of non-ferrous metals industry was significantly higher than the rate of output growth, according to statistics, the eight-year non-ferrous metal industry, the average growth rate of 46.35% of the total output value, rapid growth of non-ferrous metal industry output.
      After the international financial crisis, GDP growth rate slowed down, but also maintained a high growth rate of 9.6% in 2008, 9.1% in 2009. However, the growth rate of 10 kinds of commonly used non-ferrous metals in the past two years is very obvious decline, in 2008 was 7.6% in 2009 to 2.1%, lower than the GDP growth rate. From the non-ferrous metal industry output growth rate, in 2008 and 2009 were 15.8% and -2.5%, and the international financial crisis before the non-ferrous metal industry output value of the average annual growth rate of 46.35% compared to an increase of "diving" Especially in 2009, non-ferrous metal industry output for the first time a negative growth, indicating that there is abnormal fluctuations in the non-ferrous metals industry. Therefore, we seem to be able to make the conclusion: in the two years after the financial crisis, both the growth rate of production and output growth rate, non-ferrous metals industry is a serious departure from the normal growth law.
      Look at the two major non-ferrous metals, aluminum, copper growth rate and the correlation between GDP growth.
      The growth of aluminum production is positively related to the growth of GDP, and the growth rate of aluminum production is higher than that of GDP, and the fluctuation range is much larger than the fluctuation of GDP growth rate, which means that the gross domestic product Small changes, the aluminum industry will enlarge this change to produce a severe shock. From 2000 to 2007, the average growth rate of aluminum production was 20.7%, much higher than the average growth rate of GDP in the same period of 10.09%, indicating that the aluminum industry in this period of rapid development. However, in the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, aluminum production growth rate dropped to 4.7% and -2.2%, not only far lower than the GDP growth rate, and in 2009 aluminum production growth rate also appeared negative, once again proved "GDP a cold, aluminum will have a fever," this statement is not empty words.
      The growth rate of copper production is also positively related to GDP growth rate. Except 2002, the growth rate of copper output in other years is higher than that of GDP growth rate. Statistics show that from 2000 to 2007, the average growth rate of copper production was 14.7%, higher than the average growth rate of GDP 4.69 percentage points. It is noteworthy that during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, copper production growth rate of 8.4% and 6.8%, respectively, lower than the GDP growth rate of 9.6% and 9.1%, indicating that the performance of copper and ten commonly used The performance of non-ferrous metals is basically the same: growth is positively related to GDP; higher than GDP growth; volatility is greater than GDP.
      Determine "breaking eight" non-ferrous metal development potential, but also the growth of non-ferrous metal investment in fixed assets.
      Into the 21st century, non-ferrous metals into the fast-growing fast track, the growth rate was significantly higher than the GDP growth rate. What contributed to the rapid development of non-ferrous metals industry? From the investment, consumption, net exports, "Troika" pull to analyze the role of China's non-ferrous metal net exports is small, it's pulling effect is very small, mainly depends on investment and consumption. Comparing market demand and investment, in the past 12 years, the average growth rate of apparent demand for nonferrous metals was 15.2%, while the average growth rate of non-ferrous metal investment in fixed assets reached 43.1%, obviously played a leading role in investment. Particularly noteworthy is that investment in fixed assets investment in non-ferrous metals industry only in the financial crisis in 2009 the most profound slowed to 14.8% in 2010, 2011, a strong rebound in 2011, the total non-ferrous metal investment in fixed assets reached 477.4 billion yuan, of which investment in the western region reached 206 billion yuan, accounting for non-ferrous metal industry, the annual total investment of 43% of the western investment than in 2010 increased by 42.9%. This shows that non-ferrous metals have been strong momentum of the "Western investment fever."
      After the above analysis, we can easily make the following predictions:
      First, the decline in the growth rate of GDP on non-ferrous metal industry a great impact, GDP growth rate from 9.1% in 2011 down to 7.5%, down 1.6 percentage points, then the rate of fluctuations in non-ferrous metals growth rate will be greater than 1.6 percentage point.
      Second, for many years of high investment in non-ferrous metal fixed assets, has formed a huge non-ferrous metal production capacity will be released, and will continue to have new production capacity, excess capacity situation will be further exacerbated, the market competition will be more intense.
      Third, GDP growth "break eight" will become the norm, non-ferrous metals must adapt. Therefore, blind investment, duplication of investment resulting in investment, "drift" will become a high probability event, to guard against investment into idle assets, which is the investment decision-makers need to calm thinking.
      Fourth, the national economy "fast train" slow down, non-ferrous metal "high-speed rail" deceleration is inevitable. In the "eight break" conditions, should be the focus and direction of the main changes in economic development mode, adjust the industrial structure, transformation and upgrading, strengthen internal management, reduce costs, enhance market competitiveness or will become the current one enterprise managers Major Courses. (Zhao Xiufu) author of the reform and development center of aluminum company